Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China

doi:10.1071/WF18083

	Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China
	Cai, Longyan 1; He, Hong S.2,3; Liang, Yu 1; Wu, Zhiwei 1; Huang, Chao 1
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE
	2019
卷号	28 期号:3 页码:205-215
关键词	FARSITE fire behaviour fuel model uncertainty analysis wildfire modelling
ISSN号	1049-8001
DOI	10.1071/WF18083
英文摘要	Fire propagation is inevitably affected by fuel-model parameters during wildfire simulations and the uncertainty of the fuel-model parameters makes forecasting accurate fire behaviour very difficult. In this study, three different methods (Morris screening, first-order analysis and the Monte Carlo method) were used to analyse the uncertainty of fuel-model parameters with FARSITE model. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that only a few fuel-model parameters markedly influenced the uncertainty of the model outputs, and many of the fuel-model parameters had little or no effect. The fire-spread rate is the driving force behind the uncertainty of other fire behaviours. Thus, the highly uncertain fuel-model parameters associated with spread rate should be used cautiously in wildfire simulations. Monte Carlo results indicated that the relationship between model input and output was non-linear and neglecting fuel-model parameter uncertainty of the model would magnify fire behaviours. Additionally, fuel-model parameters have high input uncertainty. Therefore, fuel-model parameters must be calibrated against actual fires. The highly uncertain fuel-model parameters with high spatial-temporal variability consisted of fuel-bed depth, live-shrub loading and 1-h time-lag loading are preferentially chosen as parameters to calibrate several wildfires.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0600804] ; National Science Foundation of China[41807502] ; National Science Foundation of China[31570462]
WOS研究方向	Forestry
语种	英语
出版者	CSIRO PUBLISHING
WOS记录号	WOS:000465313900003
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://210.72.129.5/handle/321005/124063]
专题	中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所
通讯作者	Liang, Yu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Ecol, CAS Key Lab Forest Ecol & Management, 72 Wenhua Rd, Shenyang 110016, Liaoning, Peoples R China 2.Univ Missouri, Sch Nat Resources, Columbia, MO 65211 USA 3.Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Changchun 130024, Jilin, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cai, Longyan,He, Hong S.,Liang, Yu,et al. Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE,2019,28(3):205-215.
APA	Cai, Longyan,He, Hong S.,Liang, Yu,Wu, Zhiwei,&Huang, Chao.(2019).Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE,28(3),205-215.
MLA	Cai, Longyan,et al."Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE 28.3(2019):205-215.