How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.012

	How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites
	Hoffmann, M. P.1; Haakana, M.2; Asseng, S.3; Hohn, J. G.2; Palosuo, T.2; Ruiz-Ramos, M.4; Fronzek, S.5; Ewert, F.6; Gaiser, T.6; Kassie, B. T.3
刊名	AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
	2018
卷号	159 页码:199-208
关键词	Inter-annual yield variability Yield gap analysis Wheat Maize Climate-induced risk
ISSN号	0308-521X
DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.012
通讯作者	Hoffmann, M. P.(mhoffma@gwdg.de)
英文摘要	Provision of food security in the face of increasing global food demand requires narrowing of the gap between actual farmer's yield and maximum attainable yield. So far, assessments of yield gaps have focused on average yield over 5-10 years, but yield gaps can vary substantially between crop seasons. In this study we hypothesized that climate-induced inter-annual yield variability and associated risk is a major barrier for farmers to invest, i.e. increase inputs to narrow the yield gap. We evaluated the importance of inter-annual attainable yield variability for the magnitude of the yield gap by utilizing data for wheat and maize at ten sites representing some major food production systems and a large range of climate and soil conditions across the world. Yield gaps were derived from the difference of simulated attainable yields and regional recorded farmer yields for 1981 to 2010. The size of the yield gap did not correlate with the amplitude of attainable yield variability at a site, but was rather associated with the level of available resources such as labor, fertilizer and plant protection inputs. For the sites in Africa, recorded yield reached only 20% of the attainable yield, while for European, Asian and North American sites it was 56-84%. Most sites showed that the higher the attainable yield of a specific season the larger was the yield gap. This significant relationship indicated that farmers were not able to take advantage of favorable seasonal weather conditions. To reduce yield gaps in the different environments, reliable seasonal weather forecasts would be required to allow farmers to manage each seasonal potential, i.e. overcoming season-specific yield limitations.
资助项目	German Federal Ministry of Education and Research via the 'Limpopo Living Landscapes' project within the SPACES programme[01LL1304A] ; IMPAC<^>3 project - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research[FKZ 031A351A] ; Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (FACCE-MACSUR) ; Academy of Finland through the NORFASYS project[268277] ; Academy of Finland through the NORFASYS project[292944] ; PLUMES project[277276] ; PLUMES project[277403] ; PLUMES project[292836] ; INIA (FACCE-MACSUR) ; MULCLIVAR project (MINECO) ; German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI) ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) of the UK ; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project BiomassWeb of GlobeE)[FKZ031A258B]
WOS关键词	SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ; CROP SIMULATION-MODELS ; SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE ; FERTILIZER APPLICATION ; RISK-AVERSION ; MANAGEMENT ; CHINA ; WEATHER ; NITROGEN ; IMPACTS
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000419415700019
资助机构	German Federal Ministry of Education and Research via the 'Limpopo Living Landscapes' project within the SPACES programme ; IMPAC<^>3 project - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research ; Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (FACCE-MACSUR) ; Academy of Finland through the NORFASYS project ; PLUMES project ; INIA (FACCE-MACSUR) ; MULCLIVAR project (MINECO) ; German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI) ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) of the UK ; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project BiomassWeb of GlobeE)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/56894]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hoffmann, M. P.
作者单位	1.Univ Goettingen, Trop Plant Prod & Agr Syst Modelling TROPAGS, Grisebachstr 6, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany 2.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki 00790, Finland 3.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA 4.Tech Univ Madrid, CEIGRAM, Madrid 28040, Spain 5.Finnish Environm Inst SYKE, Helsinki 00251, Finland 6.Univ Bonn, INRES, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany 7.Ctr Dev Res ZEF, Walter Flex Str 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany 8.Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 10.Beijing Normal Univ, MOE Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hoffmann, M. P.,Haakana, M.,Asseng, S.,et al. How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites[J]. AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,2018,159:199-208.
APA	Hoffmann, M. P..,Haakana, M..,Asseng, S..,Hohn, J. G..,Palosuo, T..,...&Roetter, R. P..(2018).How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,159,199-208.
MLA	Hoffmann, M. P.,et al."How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 159(2018):199-208.