Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China

doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1547-8

	Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China
	Liao, Yilan 1,2; Xu, Bing 1,3,6; Liu, Xiaochi 1,4; Wang, Jinfeng 1,2; Hu, Shixiong 5; Huang, Wei 5; Luo, Kaiwei 5; Gao, Lidong 5
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2018-06-01
卷号	32 期号:6 页码:1531-1544
关键词	Hand, foot, and mouth disease Early warning Spatiotemporal abnormal aggregation Moving percentile method Bayesian belief network
ISSN号	1436-3240
DOI	10.1007/s00477-018-1547-8
通讯作者	Liao, Yilan(liaoyl@lreis.ac.cn) ; Gao, Lidong(810173358@qq.com)
英文摘要	Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease resulting in millions of cases and even hundreds of deaths. Although a newly developed formalin-inactivated EV71 (FI-EV71) vaccine is effective against EV71, which is a major pathogen for HFMD, no vaccine against HFMD itself has yet been developed. Therefore, establishing a sensitive and accurate early warning system for HFMD is important. The early warning model for HFMD in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System combines control chart and spatial statistics models to detect spatiotemporal abnormal aggregations of morbidity. However, that type of early warning for HFMD just involves retrospective analysis. In this study, we apply a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to estimate the increased risk of death and severe HFMD in the next month based on pathogen detection and environmental factors. Hunan province, one of the regions with the highest prevalence of HFMD in China, was selected as the study area. The results showed that compared with the traditional early warning model for HFMD, the proposed method can achieve a very high performance evaluation (the average AUC tests were more than 0.92). The model is also simple and easy to operate. Once the structure of the BBN is established, the increased risk of death and severe HFMD in the next month can be estimated based on any one node in the BBN.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41471377] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; Featured Institute Construction Services Program of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS[TSYJS03] ; Project Coupling big data and sampling for spatial mapping - LREIS[088RA200YA] ; Scientific research project - Chinese Preventive Medicine Association[20101801]
WOS关键词	MOUTH-DISEASE ; FOOT ; HAND ; SURVEILLANCE ; OUTBREAK ; SYSTEM
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000432784400005
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Featured Institute Construction Services Program of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS ; Project Coupling big data and sampling for spatial mapping - LREIS ; Scientific research project - Chinese Preventive Medicine Association
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54778]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liao, Yilan; Gao, Lidong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Key Lab Surveillance & Early Warning Infect Dis, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sinodanish Coll, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.China Univ Geosci, Sch Informat Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 5.Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha 410005, Hunan, Peoples R China 6.Sinodanish Ctr Educ & Res, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liao, Yilan,Xu, Bing,Liu, Xiaochi,et al. Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2018,32(6):1531-1544.
APA	Liao, Yilan.,Xu, Bing.,Liu, Xiaochi.,Wang, Jinfeng.,Hu, Shixiong.,...&Gao, Lidong.(2018).Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,32(6),1531-1544.
MLA	Liao, Yilan,et al."Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 32.6(2018):1531-1544.