Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models

doi:10.3390/ijerph15071476

	Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models
	Song, Chao 1,2; He, Yaqian 3; Bo, Yanchen 1; Wang, Jinfeng 4; Ren, Zhoupeng 4; Yang, Huibin 1
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
	2018-07-01
卷号	15 期号:7 页码:16
关键词	HFMD spatiotemporal zero-inflated modeling climate and socioeconomic factors spatiotemporal mapping Bayesian Hierarchical method
ISSN号	1660-4601
DOI	10.3390/ijerph15071476
通讯作者	Bo, Yanchen(boyc@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China's HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD's spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We developed four models, including spatiotemporal Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to explore disease spatiotemporal patterns. The results showed that the spatiotemporal ZINB model performed best. Both climate and socioeconomic variables were identified as significant risk factors for increasing HFMD incidence. The relative risk (RR) of HFMD at the local scale showed nonlinear temporal trends and was considerably spatially clustered in Mainland China. The first complete county-level spatiotemporal relative risk maps of HFMD were generated by this study. The new findings provide great potential for national county-level HFMD prevention and control, and the improved spatiotemporal zero-inflated model offers new insights for epidemic data with the zero-inflated problem in environmental epidemiology and public health.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701448] ; Southwest Petroleum University[201699010064] ; State Key Lab of Remote Sensing Science
WOS关键词	METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ; AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE ; POISSON REGRESSION ; CROSS-VALIDATION ; RELATIVE RISK ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; GUANGDONG ; GUANGZHOU ; INFERENCE ; MORTALITY
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000445543500183
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Southwest Petroleum University ; State Key Lab of Remote Sensing Science
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52857]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Bo, Yanchen
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Inst Remote Sensing Sci & Engn, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, Peoples R China 3.West Virginia Univ, Dept Geol & Geog, Morgantown, WV 26505 USA 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song, Chao,He, Yaqian,Bo, Yanchen,et al. Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2018,15(7):16.
APA	Song, Chao,He, Yaqian,Bo, Yanchen,Wang, Jinfeng,Ren, Zhoupeng,&Yang, Huibin.(2018).Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,15(7),16.
MLA	Song, Chao,et al."Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 15.7(2018):16.