Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2284-5

	Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests
	Hussain, Mubasher 1,2,3; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan 2; Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Raza 2; Mahmood, Rashid 4; Jia, Shaofeng 4
刊名	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
	2018-10-01
卷号	134 期号:1-2 页码:423-440
关键词	Precipitation projection Stochastic weather generator Quantile perturbation CMIP5 Tropical rainforests Rajang River Basin Sarawak Borneo
ISSN号	0177-798X
DOI	10.1007/s00704-017-2284-5
通讯作者	Hussain, Mubasher(MubasherHussain@sarawakenergy.com.my)
英文摘要	We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.
资助项目	Sarawak Energy Berhad, Malaysia
WOS关键词	STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS ; SUMMER MONSOON VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; TREND ANALYSIS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; LOESS PLATEAU ; LOW-FREQUENCY ; LARS-WG ; TEMPERATURE
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER WIEN
WOS记录号	WOS:000446552300029
资助机构	Sarawak Energy Berhad, Malaysia
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52793]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hussain, Mubasher
作者单位	1.Sarawak Energy Ballad, Hydro Dept, Kuching 93050, Sarawak, Malaysia 2.Univ Teknol Petronas, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seri Iskandar 32610, Perak, Malaysia 3.Bintech Ltd, Folkestone CT20 2PT, Kent, England 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hussain, Mubasher,Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan,Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Raza,et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2018,134(1-2):423-440.
APA	Hussain, Mubasher,Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan,Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Raza,Mahmood, Rashid,&Jia, Shaofeng.(2018).Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,134(1-2),423-440.
MLA	Hussain, Mubasher,et al."Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 134.1-2(2018):423-440.