Gradation of the significance level of trends in precipitation over China

doi:10.2166/nh.2018.187

	Gradation of the significance level of trends in precipitation over China
	Xie, Ping 1,2; Zhao, Yuxi 1; Sang, Yan-Fang 3,4; Gu, Haiting 1; Wu, Ziyi 1; Singh, Vijay P.5,6
刊名	HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
	2018-12-01
卷号	49 期号:6 页码:1890-1901
关键词	detection and attribution global climate change hydrological variability significance stochastic process trend
ISSN号	0029-1277
DOI	10.2166/nh.2018.187
通讯作者	Sang, Yan-Fang(sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	How to accurately detect and estimate the significance level of trends in hydroclimate time series is a challenge. Building on correlation analysis, we propose an approach for evaluating and grading the significance level of trend in a series, and apply it to evaluate the changes in annual precipitation in China. The approach involved first formulating the relationship between the correlation coefficient and trend's slope. Four correlation coefficient thresholds are then determined by considering the influence of significance levels and data length, and the significance of trends is graded as five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong and dramatic. A larger correlation coefficient reflects a larger slope of trend and its higher significance level. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments indicated that the correlation coefficient-based approach not only reflects the magnitude of a trend, but also considers the influence of dispersion degree and mean value of the original series. Compared with the Mann-Kendall test used commonly, the proposed approach gave more accurate and specific gradation of the significance level of trends in annual precipitation over China. We find that the precipitation trends over China are not uniform, and the effects of global climate change on precipitation are not strong and limited to some regions.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[91547205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91647110] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51579181] ; Program for the 'Bingwei' Excellent Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2017074] ; National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project[SHZH-IWHR-57]
WOS关键词	MANN-KENDALL ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; CONTINENTAL US ; RIVER-BASIN ; TIME-SERIES ; ARID REGION ; STREAMFLOW ; CONSTRAINTS ; TEMPERATURE ; PATTERNS
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	IWA PUBLISHING
WOS记录号	WOS:000452413800014
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Program for the 'Bingwei' Excellent Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS ; National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51387]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Sang, Yan-Fang
作者单位	1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Terr Sovereignty & Maritim, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 5.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, 321 Scoates Hall,2117 TAMU, College Stn, TX 77843 USA 6.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, 321 Scoates Hall,2117 TAMU, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Ping,Zhao, Yuxi,Sang, Yan-Fang,et al. Gradation of the significance level of trends in precipitation over China[J]. HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,2018,49(6):1890-1901.
APA	Xie, Ping,Zhao, Yuxi,Sang, Yan-Fang,Gu, Haiting,Wu, Ziyi,&Singh, Vijay P..(2018).Gradation of the significance level of trends in precipitation over China.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,49(6),1890-1901.
MLA	Xie, Ping,et al."Gradation of the significance level of trends in precipitation over China".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 49.6(2018):1890-1901.