Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.01.004

	Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain
	Jin, Gui 1,2; Chen, Kun 1; Wang, Pei 2; Guo, Baishu 1; Dong, Yin 3; Yang, Jun 4
刊名	TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
	2019-04-01
卷号	141 页码:36-46
关键词	Land-use competition and trade-offs Scenarios Simulation CGELUC model DLS model North China Plain
ISSN号	0040-1625
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2019.01.004
通讯作者	Jin, Gui(jingui@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Yang, Jun()
英文摘要	Using the Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change (CGELUC) and Dynamics of Land System (DLS) models, we simulated land-use structures and patterns in Shandong Province in 2025 under three scenarios: baseline, resource consumption, and green development. Compared with the situation in 2015, a slight decrease in grassland, cultivated, and unused land was evident under the green development scenario. Forest land cover remained basically unchanged, whereas water bodies and construction land increased slightly. Under the baseline and resource consumption scenarios, all of the above land-use types showed a decreasing trend apart from construction land, which rapidly increased. Changes in the land-use allocation pattern demonstrated overall consistency and local differences under these scenarios. Among them, most changes in construction and cultivated land occurred around cities, with changes in forests and grassland mainly distributed in the central and northeastern regions. Changes in water bodies and unused land mainly occurred in the northern Yellow River basin and in northeastern coastal areas. Local differences were evident under the green development scenario, with conversion of a small amount of cultivated land in the central region into forests and grassland, and transformation of a small area of cultivated land in the northeastern coastal area into water bodies. The study's findings provide a scientific projection of competitive land-use relations in Shandong Province over the next decade under different land expropriation price and regulation scenarios, which can guide policy formulation and the selection of pathways for achieving sustainable regional development.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771568] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71533004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41501593] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500]
WOS关键词	USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; URBAN EXPANSION ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; URBANIZATION ; EFFICIENCY
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Public Administration
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000460990700004
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49293]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Jin, Gui; Yang, Jun
作者单位	1.Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.China Univ Geosci, Sch Publ Adm, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China 4.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Ocean Sci, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, Gui,Chen, Kun,Wang, Pei,et al. Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2019,141:36-46.
APA	Jin, Gui,Chen, Kun,Wang, Pei,Guo, Baishu,Dong, Yin,&Yang, Jun.(2019).Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,141,36-46.
MLA	Jin, Gui,et al."Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 141(2019):36-46.