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	Understanding the predictability of east asian summer monsoon from the reproduction of land-sea thermal contrast change in amip-type simulation
	Zhou, Tianjun1; Zou, Liwei1,2
刊名	Journal of climate
	2010-11-15
卷号	23期号:22页码:6009-6026
ISSN号	0894-8755
DOI	10.1175/2010jcli3546.1
通讯作者	Zhou, tianjun(zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Previous studies on the predictability of east asian summer monsoon circulation based on sst-constrained atmospheric model intercomparison project (amip)-type simulations show that this phenomenon is reproduced with lower skill than other monsoon patterns. the authors examine the reason in terms of the predictability of land-sea thermal contrast change. in the observation, a stronger monsoon circulation is dominated by a tropospheric warming over east asian continent and a cooling over the tropical western pacific and north pacific, indicating an enhancement of the summertime "warmer land-colder ocean" mean state. the tropospheric cooling over the tropical western pacific and north pacific, and the tropospheric warming over east asian continent are reproducible in amip-type simulations, although there are biases over both the north pacific and east asia. the tropospheric temperature responses in the model indicate a reasonable predictability of the meridional land-sea thermal contrast; the zonal land-sea thermal contrast change is also predictable but shows bias over the region north to 25 degrees n in north pacific. the reproducibility of the meridional thermal contrast is higher than that of the zonal thermal contrast. an examination of the predictability of two commonly used monsoon indices reveals far different skills. the index defined as zonal wind shear between 850 and 200 h pa averaged over east asia is highly predictable. the skill comes from the predictability of the meridional land-sea thermal contrast. although the zonal thermal contrast change is mostly predictable except for the biases over the north pacific, the monsoon index defined as zonal sea level pressure (slp) difference across the east asian continent and the north pacific is unpredictable. the low skill is related to the index definition, which attaches more importance to the land slp change. the limitation of the index in measuring the land slp change reduces the model skill. although regional features of monsoon precipitation changes remain a challenge for current climate models, the predictable land-sea thermal contrast change sheds light on monsoon circulation prediction.
WOS关键词	COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; NCEP-NCAR REANALYSIS ; SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; AUSTRALIAN MONSOON ; ANOMALIES ; RAINFALL ; CLIMATE
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000285227600007
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2405847
专题	中国科学院大学
通讯作者	Zhou, Tianjun
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Tianjun,Zou, Liwei. Understanding the predictability of east asian summer monsoon from the reproduction of land-sea thermal contrast change in amip-type simulation[J]. Journal of climate,2010,23(22):6009-6026.
APA	Zhou, Tianjun,&Zou, Liwei.(2010).Understanding the predictability of east asian summer monsoon from the reproduction of land-sea thermal contrast change in amip-type simulation.Journal of climate,23(22),6009-6026.
MLA	Zhou, Tianjun,et al."Understanding the predictability of east asian summer monsoon from the reproduction of land-sea thermal contrast change in amip-type simulation".Journal of climate 23.22(2010):6009-6026.

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