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	A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over pakistan
	Kazmi, Dildar Hussain1,5; Li, Jianping2,3; Ruan, Chengqing4; Zhao, Sen1,5; Li, Yanjie1
刊名	Climate dynamics
	2016-10-01
卷号	47期号:7-8页码:2653-2666
关键词	Interannual model Enso Summer monsoon Cvsr Cgt
ISSN号	0930-7575
DOI	10.1007/s00382-016-2990-1
通讯作者	Kazmi, dildar hussain(dhkazmi@gmail.com) ; Li, jianping(ljp@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	A statistical approach is utilized to construct an interannual model for summer (july-august) rainfall over the western parts of south asian monsoon. observed monthly rainfall data for selected stations of pakistan for the last 55 years (1960-2014) is taken as predictand. recommended climate indices along with the oceanic and atmospheric data on global scales, for the period april-june are employed as predictors. first 40 years data has been taken as training period and the rest as validation period. cross-validation stepwise regression approach adopted to select the robust predictors. upper tropospheric zonal wind at 200 hpa over the northeastern atlantic is finally selected as the best predictor for interannual model. besides, the next possible candidate 'geopotential height at upper troposphere' is taken as the indirect predictor for being a source of energy transportation from core region (northeast atlantic/western europe) to the study area. the model performed well for both the training as well as validation period with correlation coefficient of 0.71 and tolerable root mean square errors. cross-validation of the model has been processed by incorporating jra-55 data for potential predictors in addition to ncep and fragmentation of study period to five non-overlapping test samples. subsequently, to verify the outcome of the model on physical grounds, observational analyses as well as the model simulations are incorporated. it is revealed that originating from the jet exit region through large vorticity gradients, zonally dominating waves may transport energy and momentum to the downstream areas of west-central asia, that ultimately affect interannual variability of the specific rainfall. it has been detected that both the circumglobal teleconnection and rossby wave propagation play vital roles in modulating the proposed mechanism.
WOS关键词	ROSSBY-WAVE PROPAGATION ; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ; NORTH CHINA ; FLOW ; MONSOON
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000384549500040
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2375039
专题	中国科学院大学
通讯作者	Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci GCESS, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.North China Sea Marine Forecasting Ctr State Ocea, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kazmi, Dildar Hussain,Li, Jianping,Ruan, Chengqing,et al. A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over pakistan[J]. Climate dynamics,2016,47(7-8):2653-2666.
APA	Kazmi, Dildar Hussain,Li, Jianping,Ruan, Chengqing,Zhao, Sen,&Li, Yanjie.(2016).A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over pakistan.Climate dynamics,47(7-8),2653-2666.
MLA	Kazmi, Dildar Hussain,et al."A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over pakistan".Climate dynamics 47.7-8(2016):2653-2666.

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