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	A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties
	Frieler K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P.
	2015
关键词	global food demand water availability elevated co2 future carbon system productivity agriculture emissions scarcity
英文摘要	Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
出处	Earth System Dynamics
卷	6
期	2
页	447-460
语种	英语
ISSN号	2190-4979
DOI标识	10.5194/esd-6-447-2015
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43525]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Frieler K.,Levermann, A.,Elliott, J.,et al. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties. 2015.

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