Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050

doi:10.1657/AAAR0016-008

	Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050
	Li, YM (Li, Yemeng)1; Tian, LD (Tian, Lide)2,3; Zhao, LY ; Yi, Y (Yi, Yang)1; Moore, JC (Moore, John C.)1,3,4,5; Sun, SN (Sun, Sainan)1; Zhao, LY (Zhao, Liyun)1,4
刊名	ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH
	2017
卷号	49 期号:1 页码:1-12
关键词	HIGH-MOUNTAIN ASIA FULL-STOKES MODEL SEA-LEVEL RISE CLIMATE-CHANGE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHINA MASS ICE ENERGY AREA
DOI	10.1657/AAAR0016-008
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Few simulations of typical Tibetan Plateau glacier response to climate warming have been made, despite the glaciers' importance as water supplies in an arid region. Here we apply a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes ice dynamics model to simulate the evolution of Qingtang No.1 Glacier, a representative glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau. A degree-day model along with snow temperature and precipitation estimates based on nearby observations are used to estimate surface mass balance (SMB) over the past three decades. The resulting SMB gradients and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to air temperature are used to parameterize the SMB in the future. We use the ice-flow model to simulate glacier evolution from 2013 to 2050. Simulated within-glacier temperatures and present-day glacier terminus retreat rates are in reasonable agreement with previous observations. Forcing the glacier model with the historical warming trend of 0.035 degrees Ca-1 and a warming projection from the high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the A1B scenario for the period 2013-2050 leads to substantial retreat and ice loss, and large increases (110%-155%) in annual water runoff. Losses of 11%-18% in area and 19%-30% in volume are predicted over the next four decades, with the warmer RegCM3 scenario giving larger rates of loss. Sensitivity of glacier change to the parameters in SMB profiles are also assessed.
学科主题	自然地理学
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Physical Geography
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000394918000001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8334]
专题	青藏高原研究所_图书馆
通讯作者	Zhao, LY
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, 19 Xinjiekou Wai St, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China. 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, 16 Lincui Rd, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 3.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, 16 Lincui Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China. 4.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, 19 Xinjiekou Wai St, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China. 5.Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, POB 122, Rovaniemi 96101, Finland.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, YM ,Tian, LD ,Zhao, LY,et al. Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050[J]. ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH,2017,49(1):1-12.
APA	Li, YM .,Tian, LD .,Zhao, LY.,Yi, Y .,Moore, JC .,...&Zhao, LY .(2017).Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050.ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH,49(1),1-12.
MLA	Li, YM ,et al."Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050".ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH 49.1(2017):1-12.