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题名	广东省2020年交通部门能源需求情景分析; Scenario Analysis of Transportation Sector Energy Demand in Guangdong until 2020
作者	邱立勋
学位类别	硕士
答辩日期	2008-06-06
授予单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
授予地点	广州能源研究所
导师	赵黛青
关键词	能源需求 情景分析 IPAC-AIM/Local模型 综合交通 城市客运交通
其他题名	Scenario Analysis of Transportation Sector Energy Demand in Guangdong until 2020
中文摘要	As an important sector related to national plans and civilian lives, the development of the transportation industry has made great contribution to the improvement of people’s life quality, promotion of the development of socio-economic related departments, ensuring national security, etc. While in the other aspect, the development of the transportation industry has also brought about a series of problems, such as dependence on oil, air pollution and occupation of land, greenhouse gas emissions, etc. In recent years, Guangdong Province's rapid economic development has driven the growth of traffic demand, which led to the transport sector's rapid growth in energy demand, but also increased energy security, ecological and environmental problems. Energy demand scenario analysis of Guangdong Province’s transport sector is the basis for building sustainable transport. This paper carried out energy demand scenario analysis around the Guangdong Provincial transport sector and made the following areas’ exploration. First, this paper made conclusion and analysis to the development process and energy consumption status of Guangdong Province’s transport sector over the past 20 years. In summing up the transport sector development, the growth law and trend of the traffic volume, the proportion of all transport modes and evolution trend were investigated. When analyzing the status of the transport sector’s the energy consumption, the whole energy consumption and the ratio in the terminal energy consumption of the Guangdong Province's transport sector were surveyed. When the non-operating traffic was incorporated into the integrated transport, calculations were made again. We found that the whole energy consumption of Guangdong Province’s transport sector accounted for 16.55% of the terminal energy consumption in 2005. At the same time, comprehensive transport energy intensity was recommended to evaluate the change of the unit energy consumption in Guangdong Provincial integrated transport sector. In comparison with the average level of the whole country, we found that the comprehensive transport energy intensity was twice of the average level in the whole country. Second, the scenarios analysis of Guangdong province’s integrated transport energy demand was then carried out. In accordance with the progressive relations between the layers, we used an econometric model to predict the transport demand of Guangdong Province till 2020. Then completely decomposed model was introducted to decompose Guangdong Province’s comprehensive traffic energy consumption in several aspects, including the service volume factor, structure factor and unit technical consumption factor. After that, we predicted and analysed the structure, proportion and evolution trend of all kinds of transportion modes, also the kinds of unit technical consumption inside all the transportion modes. Under the circumstance of meeting transport need, by changing the structure and technology, we set four scenarios, including baseline scenario, technological progress scenario, highways strengthening scenario and railways strengthening scenario. IPAC-AIM/Local model was used to calculate the energy demand and CO2 emissions of these four scenarios. The results showed that the technological progress scenario and the railways strengthening scenario can effectively reduce the total transport energy demand and CO2 emissions. Railways strengthening scenario can decrease the dependence on oil products, in turn increasing demand for electrical power. Highways strengthening scenario increased reliance on refined oil, which will further intensify the pressure of Guangdong Province’s supply of finished oil products. Therefore, Guangdong Province can achieve integrated technological progress of all modes of transport to curb the rapid growth of transport energy consumption, and can also optimize the proportion of all transport modes to achieve the goal of saving energy and reducing consumption. Third, Guangzhou's urban passenger transport was investigated as the microcosm of the whole Guangdong province’s passenger transport. According to every year’s travel survey data of Guangzhou City, to ensure Guangzhou’s normal growth in passenger traffic demand, we studied effect of the individual traffic dominant development mode and the public transport dominant development mode on the energy demand and air pollutants emission. Results showed that by adjusting the travel mode of transport, vigorously developing the public transport can significantly reduce energy demand, which is a powerful initiative to ensure the energy security and reduce emissions of air pollutants, and also which is an effective way to achieve the sustainable development of the city passenger transport’s energy and environment. Thus this paper suggested that Guangzhou should make key planning and development in the future transport planning and construction. To sum up, this paper set several reasonable possible paths of development. We also made the energy demand scenarios analysis of the Guangdong Province’s transport department till 2020. Results of this study could provide some scientific, forward-looking and operable decision-making suggestions and references for Guangdong Province’s transport departments’energy supply, energy-saving and emission reduction, environmental protection, etc.
语种	中文
公开日期	2011-07-14 ; 2011-07-15
页码	82
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/5808]
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	邱立勋. 广东省2020年交通部门能源需求情景分析, Scenario Analysis of Transportation Sector Energy Demand in Guangdong until 2020[D]. 广州能源研究所. 中国科学院广州能源研究所. 2008.

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