Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.11.129

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	Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100
	Ding, Yongxia 3; Wen, Zhongming 1,4; Chen, Yunming 1,4; Cao, Yang 1,4; Ren, Jingyu 2; Chen, YM (reprint author), Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.; Peng, Shouzhang 1,4
刊名	AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
	2017
卷号	233 页码:183-194
关键词	Potential Evapotranspiration Delta Downscaling Hargreaves Model Mann-kendall Trend Test Sen's Slope Estimator Loess Plateau
ISSN号	0168-1923
DOI	10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.11.129
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	The spatiotemporal change and trend of annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) over the Loess Plateau of China from 2011 to 2100 are assessed in this work. PET is calculated using the Hargreaves model with monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and a 1 km spatial resolution, which are generated using the Delta downscaling method and general circulation models (GCMs) with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The PET trend is detected via Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator tests. The following results are drawn: (1) the Delta downscaling method shows a favorable performance in detecting GCM monthly temperatures based on the mean absolute error and regression analysis between downscaled data and independent surface observations. Among the 28 GCMs, the NorESM1-M and GISS-E2-R models show the best performance in reproducing the monthly mean/maximum and minimum temperatures over the Loess Plateau, respectively; (2) the average annual PET over this region will increase by 12.7%-23.9% from 1961 to 1990 to the end of this century (2071-2100). However, these increments show strong spatial variations; (3) the annual PET during the 2011-2100 period at each grid of the region demonstrates a significantly increasing trend under each RCP scenario, while RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 have average magnitudes of trend of 10.4 mm/10yr, 17.7 mm/10yr, 21 mm/10yr, and 29.7 min/10yr, respectively; (4) the annual PET with significant trends during the other three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) presentvarious spatial distributions in their magnitudes of trend under the aforementioned RCP scenarios. RCP2.6 showed a significant decrease during 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, although such trends are only observed at 0.3% and 1.2% of the Loess Plateau, respectively; and (5) the spatial results provide some information, such as locations and area ratios, which are valuable in assessing future PET changes and trends. These spatiotemporal results represent the PET changes and trends in detail and provide insights for developing flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat the effects of global warming in this region. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
URL标识	查看原文
出版地	AMSTERDAM
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000393259400017
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058]; CAS "Light of West China" Program [XAB2015B07]; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) [GYHY201506001-3]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences "The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China" ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058]; CAS "Light of West China" Program [XAB2015B07]; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) [GYHY201506001-3]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences "The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China" ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058]; CAS "Light of West China" Program [XAB2015B07]; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) [GYHY201506001-3]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences "The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China" ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058]; CAS "Light of West China" Program [XAB2015B07]; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) [GYHY201506001-3]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences "The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China"
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/8033]
专题	水保所科研产出--SCI_2017--SCI
通讯作者	Chen, YM (reprint author), Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China 2.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China 3.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth Environm Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ding, Yongxia,Wen, Zhongming,Chen, Yunming,et al. Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2017,233:183-194.
APA	Ding, Yongxia.,Wen, Zhongming.,Chen, Yunming.,Cao, Yang.,Ren, Jingyu.,...&Peng, Shouzhang.(2017).Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,233,183-194.
MLA	Ding, Yongxia,et al."Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 233(2017):183-194.