Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China | |
Li Ming1; Tian Cong-shan1,2; Wang Yu-kuan1; Liu Qin1,3; Lu Ya-feng1; Wang Shan4 | |
刊名 | JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE |
2018-08-01 | |
卷号 | 15期号:8页码:1836-1850 |
关键词 | Debris flow Hazard assessment Relative degree analysis Rough set theory Future climate change Minjiang River basin |
ISSN号 | 1672-6316 |
DOI | 10.1007/s11629-017-4787-z |
英文摘要 | An increase in extreme precipitation events due to future climate change will have a decisive influence on the formation of debris flows in earthquake-stricken areas. This paper aimed to describe the possible impacts of future climate change on debris flow hazards in the Upper Minjiang River basin in Northwest Sichuan of China, which was severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was divided into 1285 catchments, which were used as the basic assessment units for debris flow hazards. Based on the current understanding of the causes of debris flows, a binary logistic regression model was used to screen key factors based on local geologic, geomorphologic, soil, vegetation, and meteorological and climatic conditions. We used the weighted summation method to obtain a composite index for debris flow hazards, based on two weight allocation methods: Relative Degree Analysis and rough set theory. Our results showed that the assessment model using the rough set theory resulted in better accuracy. According to the bias corrected and downscaled daily climate model data, future annual precipitation (2030-2059) in the study area are expected to decrease, with an increasing number of heavy rainfall events. Under future climate change, areas with a high-level of debris flow hazard will be even more dangerous, and 5.9% more of the study area was categorized as having a high-level hazard. Future climate change will cause an increase in debris flow hazard levels for 128 catchments, accounting for 10.5% of the total area. In the coming few decades, attention should be paid not only to traditional areas with high-level of debris flow hazards, but also to those areas with an increased hazard level to improve their resilience to debris flow disasters. |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442239600016 |
内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/23723] |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山区发展研究中心 |
通讯作者 | Wang Yu-kuan |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chengdu Univ Technol, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan, Peoples R China 4.Chengdu Land Planning & Cadastre Ctr, Chengdu 610074, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,et al. Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2018,15(8):1836-1850. |
APA | Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,Liu Qin,Lu Ya-feng,&Wang Shan.(2018).Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,15(8),1836-1850. |
MLA | Li Ming,et al."Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 15.8(2018):1836-1850. |
个性服务 |
查看访问统计 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论