QQ客服 官方微博 反馈留言

	Simulating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Measures for Rice Cultivation in Hunan Province, China
	Li Y. M.; Wu, W. X.; Ge, Q. S.; Zhou, Y.; Xu, C. C.
	2016
关键词	field experiments cropping system food security adaptation model temperature yields crops agriculture phenology
英文摘要	Climate change will inevitably continue for the next few decades and will have an impact on climate-sensitive agricultural production, emphasizing the need to design effective adaptive strategies to cope with climate risk or take advantage of potential climatic benefits. In this study, the latest version of the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-Rice( CERES-Rice) model was applied to assess the impacts of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization on rice yield, as well as the effectiveness of two popularly adopted adaptive measures in Hunan Province, the main rice-production location in China. The simulation spanned 30 years of baseline (1981-2010) as well as three future periods (2011-40, 2041-70, and 2071-99) with climate data generated by five general circulation models under the newly developed representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The simulation results showed that, in comparison with average rice yield during the baseline (1981-2010), the ensemble-average yield of all cultivars during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s would decrease under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects. The ensemble-average yield reduction during the 2080s was alleviated under both RCPs if CO2 fertilization effects were accounted for. Adaptation simulations indicated that two adaptive measures (switching cultivars and changing planting dates) could mitigate the adverse effect to different extents. The intermodel variability under both RCPs was generally small. These findings may provide useful insight into the potential impacts of climate change on rice yield and effective adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effect of future climate change in Hunan Province.
出处	Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
卷	55
期	6
页	1359-1376
语种	英语
ISSN号	1558-8424
DOI标识	10.1175/jamc-d-15-0213.1
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/42740]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Y. M.,Wu, W. X.,Ge, Q. S.,et al. Simulating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Measures for Rice Cultivation in Hunan Province, China. 2016.

个性服务

查看访问统计

相关权益政策

暂无数据

收藏/分享

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。