A long-term sensitivity analysis of the denitrification and decomposition model

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.01.005

CORC > 中国农业科学院 > 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 > 气候变化研究室

	A long-term sensitivity analysis of the denitrification and decomposition model
	Qin, Xiaobo 1,2; Wang, Hong 2; Li, Yu'e 1; Li, Yong 3; McConkey, Brian 2; Lemke, Reynald 4; Li, Changsheng 5; Brandt, Kelsey 2; Gao, Qingzhu 1; Wan, Yunfan 1
刊名	ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
	2013
卷号	43 页码:26-36
关键词	DNDC Long-term Global sensitivity analysis BACCO GEM-SA
ISSN号	1364-8152
DOI	10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.01.005
通讯作者	Qin, Xiaobo
英文摘要	Although sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted on the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model, a global SA over a long period of time is lacking. We used a method of Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs (BACCO) with the Gaussian emulation machine for sensitivity analysis software (GEM-SA) to conduct a long-term SA of DNDC for predicting the annual change of soil organic carbon (dSOC), nitrous oxide emission (N2O) and grain yield of spring wheat. Twenty seven non-weather input parameters with wide ranges were selected for SA using weather data recorded from Three Hills, Alberta over 86 years (1921-2006). The SA had two steps: 1) a preliminary BACCO GEM-SA was conducted to identify a more accurate emulator sampling method and to screen out parameters with insignificant influence on model outcomes; and 2) final BACCO GEM-SA was conducted with optimal input design set for emulator training runs varying only the significant input parameters. Results indicated that the Maximin Latin Hypercube sampling method outperformed the LP-x method with higher emulator accuracy. Most of the 27 input parameters contributed little to the three outputs by the first step BACCO GEM-SA. In the second step of BACCO GEM-SA there were only three (in the case of dSOC) and six (in the cases of N2O and yield) input parameters whose influence contributed to more than 10% of the total output variances by their total effects. Among the selected parameters, initial soil organic carbon and clay content are very important and were important in determining results for all three outputs. Sensitivities of some parameters, such as clay content and urea fertilizer amount changed dramatically over the years. This indicates that a single year SA may overestimate or underestimate a long-term parameter effect on the model prediction. The two-step procedure with the BACCO GEM-SA method improved the accuracy of SA and provided important information for model validation and parameterization. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences ; COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS ; ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL ; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000318057900004
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/19855]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Key Lab Agroenvironm, Minist Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Semiarid Prairie Agr Res Ctr, Swift Current, SK S9H 3X2, Canada 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Agroecol Proc Subtrop Reg, Inst Subtrop Agr, Changsha 410125, Hunan, Peoples R China 4.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A8, Canada 5.Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA 6.South China Agr Univ, Key Lab Soil Environm & Waste Reuse Agr Guangdong, Coll Nat Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510624, Guangdong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin, Xiaobo,Wang, Hong,Li, Yu'e,et al. A long-term sensitivity analysis of the denitrification and decomposition model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,2013,43:26-36.
APA	Qin, Xiaobo.,Wang, Hong.,Li, Yu'e.,Li, Yong.,McConkey, Brian.,...&Xu, Chao.(2013).A long-term sensitivity analysis of the denitrification and decomposition model.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,43,26-36.
MLA	Qin, Xiaobo,et al."A long-term sensitivity analysis of the denitrification and decomposition model".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 43(2013):26-36.