气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响

CORC > 中国农业科学院 > 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 > 气候变化研究室

	气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响
	居辉; 熊伟; 许吟隆; 林而达
刊名	作物学报
	2005
卷号	31 期号:10 页码:1340-1343
关键词	小麦气候变化影响
ISSN号	0496-3490
其他题名	Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in China
英文摘要	本研究采用英国Hadley中心的区域气候情景PRECIS（Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Study），结合校正的CERES-Wheat模型，对21世纪70年代（2070s）气候变化情景下我国小麦的产量变化进行了研究。结果表明，在PRECIS预测的2070s气候变化条件下，我国雨养小麦和灌溉小麦的平均单产较基准年（1961-1990平均值）约减少20％，其中雨养小麦的减产幅度略高于灌溉小麦，春小麦或春性较强的冬小麦减产明显，减产的区域主要集中在东北春麦区和西南冬麦区。; Wheat （ Triticum aestivum L. ） is the second most important grain crop in China. Understanding the relationship between climate change and wheat yields will not only help to optimize agricultural practices, but also benefit to adapt climate change. The regional climate mode PRECIS （Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Study） and CERES-wheat model were used to simulate wheat yield change under future climate eha＇nge scenarios. The preliminary results indicated that both the yields of rain-fed and irrigated wheat would be decreased in 2070s by about 20 % with climate change. The yields of rain-fed wheat loss more than irrigated wheat, and spring wheat or spring-habit winter wheat would be decreased more than winter wheat and winter-habit wheat with climate change in 2070s. The areas that yield decreased remarkable are located in Northeast China where plants with spring wheat and Southwest China with winter wheat.
学科主题	农作物
语种	中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/17523]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京, 100081
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	居辉,熊伟,许吟隆,等. 气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响[J]. 作物学报,2005,31(10):1340-1343.
APA	居辉,熊伟,许吟隆,&林而达.(2005).气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响.作物学报,31(10),1340-1343.
MLA	居辉,et al."气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响".作物学报 31.10(2005):1340-1343.