Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

	Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield
	Ju Hui 1,2; Lin Er-da 1,2; Wheeer, Tim 3; Challinor, Andrew 4; Jiang Shuai 1
刊名	Journal of Integrative Agriculture
	2013
卷号	12 期号:5 页码:892-902
关键词	climate change modelling crop yield impacts China
ISSN号	2095-3119
英文摘要	Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation.Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability.Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China.The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system.In this paper,recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches.The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced.The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized.The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models,emission scenarios and the crops simulation models.Moreover,studies have different spatial resolutions,and methods for general circulation model(GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment.However,the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change(at 700 ppm CO_2 eq correct) appears within ±10% for China in these assessments.In most literatures,the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase.Finally,the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops.The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios,CO_2 fertilization effects and adaptation options.Therefore,more studies on the fields such as free air CO_2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.
学科主题	农业基础科学
语种	中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/17010]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Minist Agr, Key Lab Agroenvironm & Climate Change, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 3.Univ Reading, Dept Agr, Walker Inst Climate Syst Res, Reading RG6 6AR, Berks, England 4.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leads LS2 9JT, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ju Hui,Lin Er-da,Wheeer, Tim,et al. Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2013,12(5):892-902.
APA	Ju Hui,Lin Er-da,Wheeer, Tim,Challinor, Andrew,&Jiang Shuai.(2013).Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,12(5),892-902.
MLA	Ju Hui,et al."Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield".Journal of Integrative Agriculture 12.5(2013):892-902.