| 题名 | 污染与气候变化压力下典型海岸带生态风险评价 |
| 作者 | 王若师 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2016-05 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院研究生院 |
| 授予地点 | 北京 |
| 导师 | 吕永龙 ; 史雅娟 |
| 关键词 | 渤海，人类活动影响，生态风险，环境污染，气候变化 Bohai sea, human impact, ecological risk, environmental pollution, climate change |
| 其他题名 | Integrated Ecological Risk Assessment of Typical Coastal Zone under Stresses of Pollution and Climate Change |
| 学位专业 | 环境经济与环境管理 |
| 中文摘要 | 生态风险评价是指对各种风险因子危害生态系统的程度进行概率估计，并提出减小风险的控制对策的过程。为阐明环渤海海岸带地区在多重压力下的综合生态风险水平，本文以该研究区域的 9种典型生态系统作为研究对象，进行了环境污染和气候变两大类风险源的指标体系构建、数据收集整理工作，共筛选了 5个污染物风险因子和 4个气候变化风险因子，分别针对这些因子进行了生态风险评价。应用专家打分和层次分析法确定了各种风险因子的权重和相互影响指数，得到了每种生态系统的综合风险。应用 IPCC的情景分析模型，进行了 4种情况下的未来生态风险情景分析。通过对研究区域海岸带生态系统的风险结果和区域发展状况，提出了研究区域的生态风险管理建议。得到的主要结论如下： （1）比较 1980-2009和 2010-2014近五年的风险结果发现，渤海环境污染带来的生态风险呈整体降低趋势。风险最高的为石油烃类污染物，其次为铅和富营养化风险。 （2）四种气候变化风险因子中，海平面上升带来的风险最大，风险值为10.7%，其次为海水温度升高，风险值为 6.4%。海水酸化和 UV-B辐射强度增加带来的生态风险分别为 2.3%和 1.7%。 （3）环境污染和气候变化在不同程度上互相加强了彼此带来的生态风险。9种生态系统的环境污染生态风险结果为39.7%（海草床)~56.4%（沙滩），计算了气候变化影响加成后的生态风险则增加到43.2% ~ 61.8%。9种生态系统的气候变化生态风险范围为 4.5%（海底）~ 9.7%（沙滩），计算了环境污染影响加成后的生态风险则增加到了6.5%~10.4%。 （4）生态系统的高风险与重金属和石油烃的高风险密切相关。不同生态系统类型的主导风险因子有所差别，富营养化风险是海草床生态系统的重要风险因子。对风险敏感性较高的生态系统倾向于为位于海 -陆交错带区域的硬着陆面生态系统，包括沙滩、礁岸和礁石。这几类生态系统的生态破碎化程度较高，因此对人类活动带来的风险抵抗能力较为脆弱。 （5）未来，给海岸带生态系统带来最大风险威胁的气候变化因子是海平面上升，其次为海温升高和海水酸化。4种情景下 2100年的气候变化风险均高于2014年的风险水平，其中在 RCP8.5情境下，气候变化会对海岸带生态系统带来不可避免的损害 |
| 英文摘要 | Ecological risk assessment is the process of evaluating the damage that harmful stressors brought to ecosystem, simultaneously giving control countermeasure to reduce the risk. In order to analyze the risk level of Bohai coastal area under multiple stresses, here we built an indicator system of pollution and climate change stressors. 9 different anthropogenic stressors (5 pollution stressors and 4 climate change stressors) were chosen to calculate the integrated ecological risk on nine types of marine and coastal ecosystems in the study area. Expert scoring and AHP (analytical hierarchical process) method were applied to get the ecosystem-specific vulnerability weights for 9 stressors and impact weights between pollution and climate change stressors. And 4 climate change scenarios were analyzed by using the RCP model of IPCC. Ecological risk management suggestions were presented after careful analysis of the risk results and local development conditions. Main conclusions of this study include: (1) Comparing the ecological risks from pollution to Bohai coastal/marine ecosystems in 1980~2009 and 2010~2014, we found pollution risk was in a descending trend. The key pollutant with the highest risk was PHs, followed by Pb and eutrophication. (2) Among all the 4 climate change stressors, sea level rise brought the highest risk (10.7%) to Bohai coastal/marine ecosystems, followed by SST rise (6.4%). Ocean acidification and UV-B enhancement brought ecological risks of 2.3% and 1.7% respectively. (3) Pollution and climate change augment each other to bring about enhanced ecological risks to marine/coastal systems. Pollution risk range for 9 ecosystems was between 39.7% (seagrass) to 56.4%(beach), which was enhanced to 43.2%~61.8% considering the impacts of climate change. Climate change risks for 9 ecosystems were from 4.5%(benthal) to 9.7%(beach), and increased to 6.5%~10.4% by the impacts of pollution. (4) High risks of ecosystems are directly related to the high levels of heavy metal and PHs risks. However, the leading risk stressors were distinguished for different ecosystems, for instance, eutrophication risk was the major risk stressor for seagrass ecosystem. Ecosystems with high risk sensitivity tend to be located in the hard land-surface of marine-terrestrial interlaced zone, including beach, rocky intertidal and rock reef. These ecosystems were much weaker in terms of risk resistance cability for the high level of habitat fragmentation. (5) Sea level rise was considered to be the biggest threat of climate change stressors to coastal/marine ecosystems in the future, followed by SST rise and ocean acidification. All 4 climate change risks in 2100 under different scenarios would be higher than that in 2014, among which climate change would bring inevitable damages to coastal/marine ecosystems under the scenario of RCP 8.5. |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/37019]  |
| 专题 | 生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 王若师. 污染与气候变化压力下典型海岸带生态风险评价[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2016. |
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