Estimation of energy saving potential in China's paper industry

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	Estimation of energy saving potential in China's paper industry
	Lin, Boqiang ; Moubarak, Mohamed ; Lin BQ(林伯强)
刊名	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.014
	2014-02-01
关键词	DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS TIME-SERIES UNIT-ROOT ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION CEMENT INDUSTRY CO2 EMISSIONS EFFICIENCY INTENSITY COINTEGRATION PERSPECTIVE
英文摘要	Newhuadu Business School Research Fund, the China Sustainable Energy Program [G-1305-18257]; National Social Science Foundation of China [12ZD059]; Ministry of Education [10JBG013]; The objective of this paper is to estimate the energy saving potential in China's paper industry by determining energy intensity under different scenarios. Cointegration model and stability test are applied to formulate the equilibrium equation. Results show that energy price, industry structure, profit margin and technology have significant impact as they are negatively correlated to changes in energy intensity. Three scenarios (BAU (business as usual), intermediate and active) are designed to estimate the future trend of energy intensity in paper industry. In 2010, the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of value added) was 4 tce/10,000 RMB, and by the scenarios it is expected to considerably decline. According to the BAU (business as usual) scenario, the energy intensity will decrease to 2.56, 1.43 and 0.70 tce/10,000 RMB by 2015, 2020 and 2025, respectively. With respect to the intermediate scenario it is expected to drop further to 0.44 tce/10,000 RMB. Yet by the active scenario, the energy intensity is expected to considerably decline to 0.36 tce/10,000 RMB by 2025. Using the BAU forecast as a baseline, the quantity of energy savings is estimated to be 185.6 billion tce by 2025. Considering this important potential, we also provided some policy suggestions. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/90195]
专题	经济学院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lin, Boqiang,Moubarak, Mohamed,Lin BQ. Estimation of energy saving potential in China's paper industry[J]. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.014,2014.
APA	Lin, Boqiang,Moubarak, Mohamed,&林伯强.(2014).Estimation of energy saving potential in China's paper industry.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.014.
MLA	Lin, Boqiang,et al."Estimation of energy saving potential in China's paper industry".http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.014 (2014).