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	大中型水电工程中移民收入水平预测模型研究
	樊启祥 ; 陆佑楣 ; 强茂山 ; 王汉花 ; FAN Qixiang ; LU Youmei ; QIANG Maoshan ; WANG Hanhua
	2016-03-30 ; 2016-03-30
关键词	移民 收入水平 预测模型 大中型水电站 Immigrant income level prediction model large hydropower station F426.93
其他题名	Prediction modeling of the income level of immigrants in large- and medium-sized hydropower projects
中文摘要	移民收入水平的恢复和提高一直是水电工程移民安置的核心问题。传统的移民收入水平的预测研究大都以定性为主,鲜见针对电站建设期和运营期移民收入水平进行连续时间序列预测的研究。本文构建了三种水电工程移民收入预测理论模型,包括:基于农用地产值计算的移民年收入预测模型、基于小康社会及新农村建设目标的移民年收入预测模型、基于当地城镇最低生活保障的移民年收入预测模型,并利用某大型水电项目的真实调查数据进行了测算和分析,以期建立符合我国经济社会发展状况的西南地区水电工程移民收入水平。通过对我国西南某大型水电站某移民县的案例测算,证明了测算模型及其结果的可行性和合理性,研究成果可以为移民政策的调整、改革及完善提供依据。; Restoration and improvement of the immigrants' income levels have been a key task of immigrant resettlement in hydropower development. Most traditional methods for consideration of the income levels are limited to qualitative estimation and comprehensive quantitative predictions are relatively rare in the previous studies. This study aims at the prediction of a time sequence of the immigrants' income levels in the construction and operation phases of hydropower projects. This paper describes three prediction models that we developed for the hydropower projects in the southwest China according to the actual economic and social development and the first-hand data of hydropower immigrants. These models were applied to a case study for test and verification. The results are useful for readjusting, restructuring and improving immigration policy.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/ir/item.do?handle=123456789/148681]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	樊启祥,陆佑楣,强茂山,等. 大中型水电工程中移民收入水平预测模型研究[J],2016, 2016.
APA	樊启祥.,陆佑楣.,强茂山.,王汉花.,FAN Qixiang.,...&WANG Hanhua.(2016).大中型水电工程中移民收入水平预测模型研究..
MLA	樊启祥,et al."大中型水电工程中移民收入水平预测模型研究".(2016).

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