QQ客服 官方微博 反馈留言

	我国居民用电方式与新型城镇化要求相一致吗?——基于城镇居民家庭用电设备及用电状况的实证研究
	梁慧芳 ; 苏铭 ; 田磊 ; Huifang Liang ; Ming Su ; Lei Tian
	2016-03-30 ; 2016-03-30
关键词	居民生活用电 新型城镇化 潜在用电水平 多元选择模型 节能控需 F299.21 TM92
其他题名	Does Household Electricity Use Pattern Accommodate the Requirement of Urbanization in China——Empirical Research Based on Household Appliances Demand and Usage
中文摘要	近年来我国居民生活用电快速增长,但用电水平依然很低。未来随着居民收入增长以及大量农民进城,并真正像城镇居民一样生活,所释放的巨大用电需求反过来是否会制约新型城镇化建设?围绕该问题,文章利用国家统计局城镇住户调查数据加以分析,发现我国高收入家庭的年度生活用电水平约3400千瓦时,折合人均不到1200千瓦时。进一步,文章使用2002—2009年城镇住户调查数据,利用多元选择模型估计了居民家用电器的饱和需求,分析了城镇居民平均住房面积上限水平,并结合电器、照明用电特征调查数据,得出我国年度人均潜在生活用电不到1200千瓦时;即使考虑电动汽车广泛普及的情景,约增加270千瓦时,也不到1500千瓦时。与发达国家(地区)相比,我国居民人均潜在生活用电水平不仅远低于美国的4500千瓦时,而且也低于日、法、德、英的1800~2500千瓦时,仅与我国香港、新加坡、韩国、意大利1100~1500千瓦时水平相当。居住和生活习惯是产生该差异的重要原因,表明我国居民用电方式较为节约,与新型城镇化节约集约建设要求基本一致。同时也意味着,国家"节能控需"政策的实施重点应是城镇化过程中的大量基础设施建设。; Household electricity use increases dramatically recently. However, the use of electricity per household is relatively low. With the rapid urbanization, more and more rural household will live in urban area and household electricity use will rise further. Will the rise in electricity demand restrain urbanization in the near future·Using urban household survey conducted by NBS and appliances usage investigation, we find that per household annual electricity demand of urban area is about 3400 kW·h, which means about 1200 kW·h per person. Moreover, we estimated saturation of household appliances using 2002—2009 household data by multinomial-logit model. We also analyzed the saturation of household floor space. Combined with appliance survey, we estimate future per capita residential electricity demand, which is about 1200 kW·h. Compared with other countries, our residential electricity use is much lower than that of U.S.(4500 kW·h/year) and those of England, Germany, Japan, and French(1800-2500 kW·h/year). Our electricity use behavior is similar to that of Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Korea and Italy. Considering the population of electric cars, the annual household electricity use will only rise by 270 kW·h. Therefore, our conclusion is that residential electricity use in urban China is economical and can accommodate to the urbanization speed. Moreover, the construction of infrastructures is more important than electricity use conservation and control.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/ir/item.do?handle=123456789/145646]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	梁慧芳,苏铭,田磊,等. 我国居民用电方式与新型城镇化要求相一致吗?——基于城镇居民家庭用电设备及用电状况的实证研究[J],2016, 2016.
APA	梁慧芳,苏铭,田磊,Huifang Liang,Ming Su,&Lei Tian.(2016).我国居民用电方式与新型城镇化要求相一致吗?——基于城镇居民家庭用电设备及用电状况的实证研究..
MLA	梁慧芳,et al."我国居民用电方式与新型城镇化要求相一致吗?——基于城镇居民家庭用电设备及用电状况的实证研究".(2016).

个性服务

查看访问统计

相关权益政策

暂无数据

收藏/分享

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。