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	基于成本收益分析的“天然气替代燃煤政策”评估——兼论天然气替代燃煤的经济效益和环境效益
	巫永平 ; 喻宝才 ; 李拂尘 ; Wu Yongping ; Yu Baocai ; Li Fuchen
	2016-03-30 ; 2016-03-30
关键词	天然气替代燃煤 经济效益 环境效益 环境成本 natural gas replacing coal economic benefits environmental benefits environmental costs F426.22
其他题名	Assessing the Natural Gas Replacing Coal Policy(NGRCP) Based on a Cost- Benefit Analysis and the Economic and Environmental Benefits of the NGRCP
中文摘要	严重的雾霾笼罩中国,成为国内外舆论热议的焦点。为应对空气污染,政府着力调整能源消费结构,期望通过天然气替代燃煤的方式缓解空气质量问题。本文试图通过综合评估天然气替代燃煤的经济效益和环境效益①回答三个问题:天然气替代燃煤能带来多少的环境收益?天然气替代燃煤会造成多少的经济成本?高价天然气究竟能不能解决中国的环境质量问题?论证结果表明:首先,就目前的天然气价格和产业素质而言,天然气替代燃煤的环境成本接近环境收益10%,较高的环境成本足以使空气治理的效果大打折扣;进而,高价天然气不仅间接产生环境成本,还直接构成机会成本,把创造的财富大量用于换取能源资源,就没有更多的财富去解决民生问题,用于整个国家社会的创新,用于增强国家的竞争力,用于改善国家实质性的安全环境;最后,如果以一句话总结天然气替代燃煤时机尚不成熟的原因,就是当前的天然气价格与目前经济社会发展水平不协调。因此,稳定燃煤使用量,以技术手段严格控制燃煤排污,是当前阶段无奈却理性的选择。如果想要通过推广使用天然气改善环境质量,就需要从源头上转变经济发展方式,降低单位GDP能耗,同时提高进口天然气的议价权,使天然气相对价格与我国经济社会发展水平协调。; The severe haze problem in China has been under the spotlight for many years in both domestic and international public opinion.In order to tackle the related air pollution problems,the Chinese government is now focusing on an adjustment of the energy— consumption structure,expecting to improve air quality by encouraging the use of natural gas instead of coal.This article attempts to answer three questions by comprehensively assessing the economic and environmental benefits of the natural gas replacing coal policy(NGRCP).First,how much will the country benefit from the NGRCP in terms of the environment? Second,how much will this policy cost the country? Third,will the expensive natural gas successfully alleviate the environmental problems in China? Our assessment includes:first,considering the price of natural gas and the industrial quality,although the environmental costs are about 10 percent of the environmental benefits,the costs are still too high,resulting in discounted effects on air control;second,the expensive natural gas causes indirect environmental costs,while it involves direct opportunity costs(exchanging,funds for resources will result in less money spent for improving the people's living standards,for encouraging innovation in the country and society,and for enhancing national power and strengthening national security power);third,the timing of the NGRCP is not right because the price of natural gas fails to match our stage of economic and social development.Thus,it is a frustrating but rational choice to stabilize coal consumption and control related pollution problems by technical methods.To step back,if we want to solve the pollution problem by using natural gas,the mode of economic development must be transformed,while energy consumption per unit of GDP must be reduced and our bargaining power for importing natural gas must be enhanced to match the price of natural gas to our stage of economic and social development.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/ir/item.do?handle=123456789/143292]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	巫永平,喻宝才,李拂尘,等. 基于成本收益分析的“天然气替代燃煤政策”评估——兼论天然气替代燃煤的经济效益和环境效益[J],2016, 2016.
APA	巫永平,喻宝才,李拂尘,Wu Yongping,Yu Baocai,&Li Fuchen.(2016).基于成本收益分析的“天然气替代燃煤政策”评估——兼论天然气替代燃煤的经济效益和环境效益..
MLA	巫永平,et al."基于成本收益分析的“天然气替代燃煤政策”评估——兼论天然气替代燃煤的经济效益和环境效益".(2016).

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