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	Prediction method for regional logistics
	Qiu Ying ; Lu Huapu ; Wang Haiwei
	2010-10-12 ; 2010-10-12
关键词	Theoretical or Mathematical/ freight handling logistics prediction theory transportation/ regional logistics prediction method regional freight traffic Chinese regional goods transportation planning expert/ C1290H Systems theory applications in transportation
中文摘要	Currently applied prediction methods of regional freight traffic and freight ton-kilometer forecasting were analyzed using typical Chinese regional goods transportation characteristics. The review of prediction methods shows that practical planning experts tend to apply the traditional methods which are easier to implement. The comparison also demonstrates that a combination of traditional methods is more effective than the simple models for practical planning. Research using the statistical data for the Yangtze Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Rim areas shows that ignoring differences between transport modes impacts the prediction accuracy. The four main transport modes suit different methods. The results show that the power model is better for railways, and the linear model is better for highways and waterways. Thus a combined model gives better results for all modes. The results for regional systems can be generalized to national transportation systems.
语种	英语
出版者	Tsinghua University Press ; China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/82052]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qiu Ying,Lu Huapu,Wang Haiwei. Prediction method for regional logistics[J],2010, 2010.
APA	Qiu Ying,Lu Huapu,&Wang Haiwei.(2010).Prediction method for regional logistics..
MLA	Qiu Ying,et al."Prediction method for regional logistics".(2010).

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