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	Uncertainty analysis of CGE model using Monte Carlo method
	Wang Can ; Chen Jining
	2010-05-10 ; 2010-05-10
关键词	Theoretical or Mathematical/ economic indicators environmental economics Monte Carlo methods stochastic processes/ uncertainty analysis CGE model Monte Carlo method stochastic computable general equilibrium model uncertainty propagation elasticity parameters carbon tax rate GDP loss carbon reduction levels carbon reduction cost carbon emission reduction/ C1290B Systems theory applications in natural resources and ecology C1290D Systems theory applications in economics and business C1140G Monte Carlo methods E0230 Environmental issues E0220 Economics E0210J Statistics
中文摘要	A solution method for the stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was tested using a Monte Carlo method to investigate the uncertainty propagation in CGE models. 50 elasticity parameters in a CGE model were treated as random variables with an assumed beta distribution. The variables include the carbon tax rate and the GDP loss corresponding to various carbon reduction levels in China. The analysis shows that the confidence interval of the marginal carbon reduction cost is 345-600 RMB/t using year 2000 prices with 95% confidence when controlling the carbon emissions to 30% lower than the business as usual (BAU) level in 2010. The corresponding confidence level for the GDP loss is 0. 85%-1. 35% for a total GDP loss of 141.5-227.0 billion RMB in year 2000 prices. The correlations among the uncertainly parameters have much greater effect on the output uncertainty.
语种	中文 ; 中文
出版者	Tsinghua Univ. Press ; China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/23620]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang Can,Chen Jining. Uncertainty analysis of CGE model using Monte Carlo method[J],2010, 2010.
APA	Wang Can,&Chen Jining.(2010).Uncertainty analysis of CGE model using Monte Carlo method..
MLA	Wang Can,et al."Uncertainty analysis of CGE model using Monte Carlo method".(2010).

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