Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

CORC > 力学研究所 > 中国科学院力学研究所 > 力学所知识产出(1956-2008)

	Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction
	Yin XC(尹祥础); Peter M; Peng KY(彭克银); Wang YC; Weatherley D
刊名	Pure and Applied Geophysics
	2002
卷号	159 期号:10 页码:2511-2523
ISSN号	0033-4553
通讯作者	Yin, XC (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China.
英文摘要	The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.
学科主题	力学
类目[WOS]	Geochemistry & Geophysics
研究领域[WOS]	Geochemistry & Geophysics
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000177938400017
公开日期	2007-06-15
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/16484]
专题	力学研究所_力学所知识产出(1956-2008)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin XC,Peter M,Peng KY,et al. Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics,2002,159(10):2511-2523.
APA	尹祥础,Peter M,彭克银,Wang YC,&Weatherley D.(2002).Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction.Pure and Applied Geophysics,159(10),2511-2523.
MLA	尹祥础,et al."Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction".Pure and Applied Geophysics 159.10(2002):2511-2523.