| 题名 | 干旱区水资源约束的土地利用与城镇空间格局研究——以奎屯河流域为例 |
| 作者 | 马英莲 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2015 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 授予地点 | 北京 |
| 导师 | 陈曦 |
| 关键词 | 干旱区 水资源承载力 土地利用 城镇空间格局 |
| 学位专业 | 理学博士 |
| 中文摘要 | 基于水资源短缺、城镇化进程与生态环境之间矛盾愈加突出、干旱区绿洲城市发展受水资源约束等背景考虑，本文以奎屯河流域为研究区，采用水资源承载力评价模型、景观格局指数、系统动力学和土地变化模拟等定量模型分析的理论与方法，在提取1999年－2011年四期土地利用类型、城镇外部形态以及该流域水资源空间分布、水文参数等数据基础上，研究流域水资源时空变化、城镇空间格局演变规律，并从区域土地格局、城镇体系、城市边界、内部空间形态等四个方面分析干旱区水资源利用与城镇空间格局相互关系，建立水资源需求预测的系统动力学模型，模拟2011年～2030年不同类型的水资源需求变化情况，并设定现状延续型、平衡发展型、节水发展型和经济优先型等不同经济社会发展情景，分析不同情景下水资源承载力的变化情况，继而在此基础上建立奎屯河流域土地利用变化的空间模拟模型，并模拟预测了四种情景下的土地利用格局在未来至2030年的演化过程和趋势，对实现流域水土资源的合理开发和可持续利用具有重要科学指导意义。主要研究结论如下：（1）奎屯河流域水资源的空间分布密度呈现出南北两端高，中部低的主要特点。另一方面，南北部水资源分布密度的空间异质性较强，中部区域的空间异质性较弱，主要体现在水资源分布密度的变化梯度上。（2）奎屯河流域1999年－2011年期间，耕地、林地、建设用地增加，草地减少，荒漠、冰川和裸地的减少趋势显著，盐碱地呈波动式变化，但总体表现为增加过程，水体面积持续稳定增加；奎屯市、乌苏市、独山子区的建成区面积迅速增加；1999-2003年间，奎屯河流域的城市扩张强度较低（6.18%），2007-2011年间迅速增高到14.30%；流域内三个中心城市建成区均趋向往连—霍高速公路、312国道、北疆铁路方向扩展，呈现出三城镇建成区平面图形几近联接在一起的特点。（3）奎屯河流域水资源利用量与土地利用、城镇发展规模相关，各类用水量与城镇发展变量间主要存在非线性函数关系。其中，用水总量与耕地、林地、草地等面积变化均在显著性水平上呈强相关性；区域和城镇用水总量与人口总量、城镇化率和一产比重的相关系数均在0.70以上。（4）奎屯河流域水资源对经济社会发展的约束强度大于土地资源。预测未来至2030年，在现势延续型、平衡发展型、节水发展型和经济优先型四种情景模式下，农业都还将一直是奎屯河流域用水需求比重最大的生产部门，工业用水需求量占流域用水总量的比重将不断升高，农业用水需求量所占比重将逐渐减小，生态需水量比重最小，但呈逐渐增加的变化趋势。现势延续型、经济优先型和平衡发展型情景下水资源对经济社会发展的承载压力较大，节水发展型情景承载压力适宜。（5）奎屯河流域土地利用变化和城镇空间发展的空间驱动因素主要体现在地形、交通条件和水资源密度等方面，水资源密度是制约城镇空间发展的关键因子之一。预测至2030年，其制约度会越来越强。同时水资源分布对奎屯河流域经济社会发展的约束程也度将越来越强。不同发展情景下水资源对城市发展的约束系数高达0.52～0.71之间，且约束系数均表现为增加过程。（6）预测未来至2030年，草地仍将是流域内规模最大的用地类型，平均占比为38.16%，耕地的规模次之，平均占比为23.63%；耕地、林地、草地和未利用地变化特征最明显，类型间动态转移频繁；不同发展情景模式下的土地利用格局具有不同的变化特征，节水发展型情景的土地利用格局变化具有较强的空间合理性。（7）节水型情景对应的发展模式是未来奎屯河流域城镇空间可持续发展的主要出路，需大幅度降低农业用水需求以保证城镇和工业发展；与现势型发展情景相比，预测节水型发展情景农业需水量在2015年、2020年、2025年和2030年分别要降低2.10×108m3、2.25×108m3、2.41×108m3和2.56×108m3。 |
| 英文摘要 | Based on the increasing conflicts between water resource shortage, urbanization and ecological environment and the background consideration of the constraints between oasis urban development and water resource, the Kuitun River Basin is selected as a study area in this paper.This paper extracts the land use types in four periods of time from 1999 to 2011, basin water resource spatial distribution, urban external form and hydrological data to study the temporal-spatial change of water resource in the basin, changing regular pattern of urban spatial patterning and analyzes the relationship between water resource use and urban spatial patterning in the four aspects of regional land patterning, urban system,external spatial structure and city boundary, employing the theory and methodology of the quantity model analyses for the water resource capacity assessment model, landscape patterning index, systematic dynamics and land changing simulation and so on. This study also has built the systematic dynamitic model of water resource need forecast, simulates water resource needs of different water types from 2011 to 2030, sets different economic and social development situations in current situation continuing type, balancing development type, water saving development type and economy priority type and analyzes the changing situation of water resource capacity in different above situations. And afterwards, this paper has stimulated and analyzed the changing process and trend of the land use pattern in four situations for the future time until 2030. This is important and scientific significant for realizing the reasonable exploration of the basin water and land resource and sustainable use. The main results of this study are as follows: (1) The spatial distributive density of water resource in the Kuitun River Basin presents the main characteristics of the north and the south high and the middle low. On the other hand, while water resources distributive density in the north and south areas shows strong spatial heterogeneity, the central region of the spatial heterogeneity is comparatively weak, reflecting its changing gradient in water resource distributive density. (2) In the Kuitun River Basin from 1999 to 2011, while cultivated land, woodland and construction land use increased, grassland had reduced and the trend of reducing of desert, glacier and bare land was significant. The saline and alkaline land showed fluctuating, but generally increasing. Water area had been continuously growing. The urban-built areas in Kuitun city, Wusu city and Dushanzi District had been increased rapidly. During 1999 to 2003, the intensity of city expansion in Kuitun River Basin was low (6.18%) and rapidly increased during 2007to 2011. The urban-built areas in the three center cities in the Basin had been expanded towards the Lian-Huo Highway, 312 National Highway and Northern Xinjiang Railway, showing the characteristics of connection of the graphs in the three urban areas. (3) The water resource utilization is related to land use and urban development in the Kuitun River Basin. The type of water resource utilization owns a nonlinear functional relation to variables of urban development. Among these, the main water use type such as total amount of water consumption has strong correlation relation with the area changes of cultivated land, woodland, grassland and so on. The correlation coefficient between the amount of water consumption in the region or urban area and total population, urbanization rate and the proportion of first industry is above 0.70 . (4) Constraint intensity of water resource in the Kuitun River Basin is more than that of land resource. Underneath the four situation mode, such as current situation continuing type, balancing development type, water saving development type and economy priority type, forecasting the future to 2030, agriculture water consumption will still be the largest proportion in the Basin. While the proportion of industrial water needs will constantly increase, the proportion of agricultural water needs will gradually decrease. Ecological water needs is the smallest proportion, but its change trend will gradually increase. Under the current situation continuing type, economy priority type and balancing development type, the bearing pressure of water resources to economic and social development is great, and saving water developing mode is reasonable for bearing pressure. (5) The spatial driving factor of land use change and urban spatial development in Kuitun River Basin is mainly reflecting in the conditions of topography and traffic and the density of water resources. The density of water resources was the one of the key factors that constrained the urban spatial development. Predicting the future to 2030, the restriction will be gradually stronger. Meanwhile, the restriction of water resource distribution to economic and social development will also be getting stronger. The constraint coefficient of water resource to the urban development under different development scenarios is up to 0.52 ~ 0.71, indicating an increasing process. (6) Predicting the future to 2030, grassland will still be the largest land use type in the Basin, averagely occupying 38.16%. Cultivated land occupies the second, averagely with 23.63%. Changes of cultivated land, woodland, grassland and unused land are the most significant. The dynamic changes between different land use types are frequent. Land use pattern under different development scenarios has different variation characteristics, The land use pattern of water saving development scenario possesses a spatial reasonability. (7) The development mode corresponding to the water saving scenario is the main method to the sustainable development of the Kuitun River Basin in the future. It is necessary to reduce the agriculture water use to ensure the development of urban and industry. Comparing with the current situation development scenarios, it can be predicted that the amount of agricultural water needs under water saving development scenarios would be reduced to 2.0 ×108 m3, 2.25×108 m3,2.41×108 m3 and 2.56×108 m3 in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 学科主题 | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14909]  |
| 专题 | 新疆生态与地理研究所_研究系统_荒漠环境研究室 |
| 作者单位 | 中科院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 马英莲. 干旱区水资源约束的土地利用与城镇空间格局研究——以奎屯河流域为例[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学. 2015. |
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