Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area
Liu, DL1,2,3; Zhang, SJ1; Yang, HJ1; Zhao, LQ4; Jiang, YH1; Tang, D3; Leng, XP1
刊名NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
2016
卷号16期号:2页码:483-496
关键词debris flow prediction water-soil coupling mechanism system Wenchuan earthquake-affected area
ISSN号1561-8633
通讯作者张少杰
英文摘要

The activities of debris flow (DF) in theWenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21% lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

WOS标题词Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
类目[WOS]Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
研究领域[WOS]Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
关键词[WOS]CRITICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS ; SOIL COUPLING MECHANISM ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; DURATION CONTROL ; REGIONAL-SCALE ; INITIATION ; SLOPE ; INTENSITY ; RUNOFF ; FAILURES
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000373920100013
内容类型期刊论文
源URL[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/14185]  
专题成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chengdu Univ Informat & Technol, Coll Software Engn, Chengdu 610225, Peoples R China
4.CMA, Publ Meteorol Serv Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Liu, DL,Zhang, SJ,Yang, HJ,et al. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2016,16(2):483-496.
APA Liu, DL.,Zhang, SJ.,Yang, HJ.,Zhao, LQ.,Jiang, YH.,...&Leng, XP.(2016).Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,16(2),483-496.
MLA Liu, DL,et al."Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 16.2(2016):483-496.
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